Really interesting essays. can I ask, is there any evidence for or against the idea that mass vaccinations (all ages groups) will help prevent the emergence of a new (more deadly) variant? I'm wondering if there is an argument along those lines that supports the idea that <65's should get the jab. thanks.
Thanks. I'm not sure about your question to be honest. Viruses without intervention generally tend towards becoming less deadly for the simple reason that they are the ones more likely to transmit. A virus that kills or severely sickens will take their host out of circulation by either killing them or confining them to their bed and this hampers spread. However, if you use vaccinations that help reduce sickness but don't necessarily hamper transmission, as the Covid-19 ones appear to do then you have what's called a leaky vaccine and potentially a problem. That is because a virus that is more deadly but whose symptoms are lessened by a vaccine will continue to spread as the carriers are not being sickened and confined to bed. Thus the natural path of the virus to becoming less deadly is blocked. This happened with Chickens and Marek's Disease. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/leaky-vaccines-enhance-spread-of-deadlier-chicken-viruses
There is theory therefore that the use of such a vaccine could drive more deadly variants. I'm don't see how unvaccinated people would do it although I am no epidemiologist.
Really interesting essays. can I ask, is there any evidence for or against the idea that mass vaccinations (all ages groups) will help prevent the emergence of a new (more deadly) variant? I'm wondering if there is an argument along those lines that supports the idea that <65's should get the jab. thanks.
Thanks. I'm not sure about your question to be honest. Viruses without intervention generally tend towards becoming less deadly for the simple reason that they are the ones more likely to transmit. A virus that kills or severely sickens will take their host out of circulation by either killing them or confining them to their bed and this hampers spread. However, if you use vaccinations that help reduce sickness but don't necessarily hamper transmission, as the Covid-19 ones appear to do then you have what's called a leaky vaccine and potentially a problem. That is because a virus that is more deadly but whose symptoms are lessened by a vaccine will continue to spread as the carriers are not being sickened and confined to bed. Thus the natural path of the virus to becoming less deadly is blocked. This happened with Chickens and Marek's Disease. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/leaky-vaccines-enhance-spread-of-deadlier-chicken-viruses
There is theory therefore that the use of such a vaccine could drive more deadly variants. I'm don't see how unvaccinated people would do it although I am no epidemiologist.